The Vice President is an important political office holder in Nigeria, as the occupier of the office is the second citizen of the country. Section 141 of the 1999 constitution (as amended) provides for the office of the Vice President, and Section 142 goes further by stipulating that a presidential candidate shall not be deemed to be validly nominated to contest the election unless he or she nominates another candidate to be his or her running mate.
The onus, therefore, now lies on Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the standard-bearer of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), to pick his running mate, who will serve as Vice President, should he be voted by the electorate as the 16th President of Nigeria in February 2023.
Since his emergence as the APC presidential candidate on 8 June 2022, the political permutations of who will be Tinubu’s running mate have been palpable. It is certainly not a surprise that virtually the entire country is interested in who the former Lagos State governor will pick as his vice-presidential candidate, majorly because he is the standard-bearer of the ruling party and the way he emerged as the candidate of the APC, which was via the instrumentality of the major power brokers: the northern governors elected on the APC platform.
Interestingly, the APC governors, collectively known as the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), have been tasked with the responsibility of working with major stakeholders of the party to advise Tinubu on the choice of his running mate according to Bayo Onanuga, spokesperson of the Bola Tinubu Campaign Organisation.
However, one major quandary for the Jagaban of Borgu is the religion of his running mate: he is a Muslim from the South-West region, and he is widely expected to pick someone from either the North-East or the North-West as his potential deputy. But the aforementioned regions are largely populated by Muslims, and there has been a huge cacophony as to whether his choice of running mate (speculated to be a Muslim) would help mellow down or further inflame Nigeria’s acute faultline of religion.
Is the APC candidate ready to damn the criticism of running a Muslim-Muslim ticket and ignore the Christians, especially in northern Nigeria? With the deadline given by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to political parties to submit the names of their candidates for the 2023 general election fast approaching, this piece, therefore, takes a look at the possible individuals that Tinubu will consider as his running mate.
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Senator Kashim Shettima (Borno State)
Senator Kashim Shettima is the Director-General of the Tinubu Campaign Organisation. He is widely revered in the northern part of the country for his administrative dexterity, having served as Borno State governor for two terms amid the escalating insurgency in his state.
The lawmaker, who currently represents Borno Central Senatorial District, is also well admired for his intelligence and sagacity and his ability to spot capable leaders and entrust them with responsibility, as evidenced by his choice of Professor Babagana Zulum as his running mate.
The major problem for Tinubu is that Shettima is a Muslim, just as he is. Also, will he be willing to alter his campaign organisation structure and remove the person who delivered victory for him at the primary after a nerve-wracking internal campaign process?
Governor Babagana Zulum (Borno State)
Governor Babagana Zulum is the current starboy of the northern Nigeria political establishment due to the efficiency and effectiveness of his administration. In less than four years, the impact of governance by the governor has been visible and largely felt across Borno State despite the problem of insecurity and insurgency. As a result of his performance, Governor Zulum has been lauded by all and sundry and has become one of the most popular governors in Nigeria today.
Although he is a Muslim, supporters, and canvassers of Tinubu insist that he needs Governor Zulum to run with him to secure the majority of the votes of the North-East and the North-West region, two large voting blocs in Nigeria. They also insist that the APC candidate would need the energy and vibrancy of the Borno State Governor to run the affairs of the country if he is elected the president of the country.
A snag, however, is that Governor Zulum is the candidate of the APC for the Borno State governorship election also taking place next year, and a good number of his people are clamouring that he goes for a second term to consolidate on the work he has begun.
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Governor Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna State)
For avid observers of Nigerian politics, the name of Governor Nasir El-Rufai popping up on this list would have been near-miraculous and even scoffed at. This is because of the fractious relationship between both men, as Governor el-Rufai has not hidden his disdain over Tinubu’s hegemony, especially his perceived godfather status, and had mentioned in an event in Lagos some years ago that he would teach Lagosians how to dislodge godfathers. But as it is often said, a day or even an hour is enough time in politics to influence things.
The thaw in relations and the subsequent rapprochement between Tinubu and Governor El-Rufai began in March 2022, when the former cancelled his planned birthday colloquium and visited Kaduna State to sympathise with the latter over the Kaduna bomb train attack and donated N50million to the victims. The action of the former Lagos State governor, from various sources, was said to have moved the Governor of Kaduna State, and he then began to view the then APC frontline presidential aspirant from another lens.
When it was looking like the APC may announce an anointed name as its consensus candidate, it was Governor El-Rufai who quickly moved the northern caucus of the PGF to convene a meeting and insisted that power shift to the south in his party in 2023. That move heavily favoured Tinubu and paved the coast for him to emerge as the ruling party’s candidate.
Governor El-Rufai ticks the right boxes for a running mate as he has been hailed for being intelligent and an astute administrator. However, apart from practising the same faith as the party’s flagbearer, he is viewed in some quarters as being controversial, fiery, and a hardliner on religious issues.
Governor Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano State)
If there is one person that has been supportive of Tinubu’s bid to become president in 2023, even before he formally announced it, that person is Governor Abdullahi Ganduje. The Kano State Governor has been a pillar to the Tinubu Campaign Organisation and solidified his relationship with the former Lagos State governor.
Probably anticipating the announcement of the former governor’s presidential bid and positioning himself as a potential running mate, Governor Ganduje agreed to host the 12th edition of the Bola Tinubu Colloquium in Kano State in 2021 almost a year before the APC presidential candidate announced his bid. It was indeed a strategic move by Tinubu to portray himself as a pan-Nigerian and by Governor Ganduje to showcase Kano as a welcoming state.
Governor Ganduje was one of the few governors who, before the 2023 political season began, advocated for power to return to the south and supported the bid of Tinubu immediately after the latter made it public. Before the APC primary, the governor has been visible in engagements in which either Tinubu was part of or involved in his campaign team. Therefore, it would not be out of place if he positions himself or is considered by Tinubu and the APC governors as the potential running mate.
Even though he has proven to be an accomplished administrator in Kano State, Governor Ganduje’s religion, which is the same as that of the party’s candidate, is a hindrance in this instance due to no fault of his. However, his bigger problem, in which he has not been able to fully exonerate himself in the court of public opinion, is that he is perceived as being corrupt. The video in which he was filmed allegedly conducting sharp practices remains a big stain on his reputation, and it is not known if the APC is willing to gamble on that.
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Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi State)
This is one person that not be discounted in the scheme of things in the APC as he is the Chairman of the party’s powerful PGF (Governors’ Forum). Governor Atiku Bagudu is a seasoned politician in Nigeria, having been a senator and currently serving his second term as Governor of Kebbi State.
Governor Bagudu is also one of the APC governors who called for the presidency to be zoned to the south in 2023. As the leader of the APC governors, he made consultations and collaborated with his northern counterparts to ensure a southerner emerged as the ruling party’s candidate.
But the stumbling block for Governor Bagudu is not his religion (he is a Muslim); he is also perceived to be venal. Although he has been able to serve unchallenged as governor for two terms, details on issues in which he has been reportedly implicated have begun to resurface. Also, while he may be the PGF Chairman, he is not as popular as Governors Zulum and El-Rufai in northern Nigeria.
Governor Simon Lalong (Plateau State)
Governor Simon Lalong is the Chairman of the Northern Governors’ Forum, the sub-group of governors which decided to zone the presidency to the south. It was he who formally announced the decision of the governors just days before the primary.
Governor Lalong is considered the running mate of Tinubu primarily because he is a Christian. If the Plateau State Governor gets the nod, it will be seen as a balancing act by the ruling party to present a Muslim-Christian ticket, which has been the norm since Nigeria returned to the democratic system of governance in 1999. Another selling point for him is that he said to command enormous respect from his colleagues.
However, his political structure is not deemed strong enough to actively canvass support and be a fortifier of the Tinubu bid. His level of influence and popularity is also not believed to be as high as some of his northern colleagues mentioned here, a thought the APC may overwhelmingly consider in a bid to court the votes of the region.
Possible outside contenders
- Boss Mustapha (Adamawa State, Christian) – Secretary to the Government of the Federation.
- Babachir Lawal (Adamawa State, Christian)- Ex-secretary to the Government of the Federation.
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